3x leveraged returns. Managed drawdowns.
A three-tier quantitative rotation system that shifts between UPRO (3x S&P 500), SSO (2x S&P 500), and GLD (gold) based on five mechanical signals. Graduated position sizing limits whipsaw damage. Gold acts as the crisis hedge. The founder’s capital runs on these exact signals.
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DEFENSIVE → 100% GLD (gold bull) or SHV (gold bear)
CAUTIOUS → 40% SSO + 60% GLD | Triggers at 10 days above SMA
FULL → 90% UPRO + 10% GLD | Triggers at 20 days + score ≥ 2
20-year backtest: every year, every regime
$100,000 invested in July 2006 grew to $3,988,777 through the 2008 crisis, 2020 COVID crash, 2022 bear market, and every choppy sideways period in between. Using real ETF prices — no simulations.
| Year | Sentinel TAA | S&P 500 | Alpha | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | $114,366 | $113,800 | +0.5% | First entry, SSO era |
| 2007 | $121,067 | $119,800 | +0.5% | Exited Nov before crash |
| 2008 | $126,995 | $76,500 | +41.1% | In gold while S&P fell 36% |
| 2009 | $160,959 | $93,800 | +4.1% | Re-entered after bottom |
| 2010 | $236,832 | $106,100 | +34.0% | UPRO compounding begins |
| 2011 | $248,954 | $107,100 | +4.3% | Navigated debt ceiling |
| 2012 | $274,129 | $122,300 | -4.1% | Choppy, some whipsaws |
| 2013 | $524,871 | $157,800 | +62.5% | Full year in UPRO: +91.5% |
| 2014 | $483,349 | $180,800 | -22.5% | Sideways + gold bear |
| 2015 | $447,275 | $183,200 | -8.8% | China crash, whipsaws |
| 2016 | $498,939 | $208,100 | -2.0% | Recovery, re-entered |
| 2017 | $655,996 | $251,400 | +10.7% | Low-vol bull |
| 2018 | $590,657 | $238,300 | -4.7% | Trade war exit |
| 2019 | $836,898 | $312,400 | +10.6% | Recovery + UPRO run |
| 2020 | $1,197,804 | $366,100 | +25.9% | Exited before COVID crash |
| 2021 | $1,874,459 | $477,700 | +26.0% | UPRO compounding |
| 2022 | $1,712,219 | $388,800 | +10.0% | Defensive in gold |
| 2023 | $2,390,111 | $492,600 | +12.9% | Re-entered, UPRO |
| 2024 | $3,581,132 | $618,600 | +24.2% | Full UPRO year |
| 2025 | $4,488,091 | $729,800 | +7.3% | Exited Mar, gold rally |
| 2026 | $3,988,777 | $702,100 | -7.3% | Defensive (current) |
| Total | $3,988,777 | $738,527 | +$3,250,250 | 20.5% vs 10.7% CAGR |
All figures use real ETF prices (SPY, UPRO, SSO, GLD) from Yahoo Finance. No simulated or synthetic returns. UPRO data begins June 2009; the system used SSO (2x) before that date.
View key trades from the backtest
| Date | Action | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2007 | EXIT to GLD | Fast exit: score -3, VIX 25.6 |
| Jun 2009 | CAUTIOUS (SSO) | SPY above SMA200 for 10 days |
| Aug 2009 | FULL (UPRO) | 20 days above SMA + score +2 |
| Feb 2020 | EXIT to GLD | Fast exit: score -2, VIX 27.9 |
| Aug 2020 | FULL (UPRO) | Graduated re-entry via CAUTIOUS |
| Mar 2022 | EXIT to GLD | Slow exit: VIX 30.8 |
| Jun 2023 | FULL (UPRO) | Graduated re-entry after cooldown |
| Nov 2024 | FULL (UPRO) | Re-entered after Sept exit |
| Mar 2026 | EXIT to GLD | Fast exit: score -3, VIX 29.5 |
81 total trades over 20 years. ~4 rotations per year. The system correctly exited before every major crash (2008, 2020, 2022) and captured every subsequent recovery.
How the system works
Three tiers of exposure. Five quantitative signals. One gold regime filter. Every rule is mechanical — no discretion, no prediction, no AI. The 200-day moving average is the foundation, backed by 100+ years of academic validation.
The Three Tiers
Five Quantitative Signals
Additional System Rules
Gold regime detection: GLD above its own 200-SMA means gold is trending — use it as the defensive asset and hedge. Below means gold is in a bear market — switch to SHV (Treasury bills). Same academically validated indicator applied to a second asset.
Faster exit for 3x leverage: UPRO positions exit on a score of -2 for just 2 consecutive days. 3x leverage requires faster risk management than 2x.
Whipsaw cooldown: After every exit, the system waits 15 trading days before counting toward re-entry. Prevents rapid in-out cycles during choppy markets. Eliminated 13 unnecessary trades in backtesting.
Founder’s live portfolio
Every signal is executed with the founder’s personal capital. The same report sent to subscribers reflects real positions, real returns.
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Current State | DEFENSIVE — 100% GLD |
| Since | March 6, 2026 (fast exit, score -3, VIX 29.5) |
| Gold Regime | BULL (GLD well above 200-SMA) |
| Cooldown | Active — 15 trading day waiting period |
| Next Step | After cooldown: need 10 days above SMA200 for CAUTIOUS |
| Delivery | Daily via email and Telegram |
$49.99 per month
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Frequently asked questions
What ETFs do I need to trade?
Three ETFs: UPRO (3x S&P 500), SSO (2x S&P 500), and GLD (gold). During gold bear markets, you may also hold SHV (short-term Treasury bills). All are highly liquid, NYSE-listed ETFs available on any major brokerage.
What brokerage do I need?
Any brokerage supporting US-listed leveraged ETFs. Interactive Brokers, TD Ameritrade, Questrade, or any major platform. Your money stays in your account — the service only provides signals.
How do I execute trades?
When a rotation triggers, you receive a notification with the exact action (e.g., “Sell UPRO, buy GLD”). Log into your brokerage, place the orders. Takes two minutes. The system averages ~4 rotations per year.
Does this work in a TFSA, RRSP, or IRA?
Yes. UPRO, SSO, GLD, and SHV are all NYSE-listed and eligible for tax-sheltered accounts in the US and Canada.
What is the worst-case scenario?
The maximum backtested drawdown was 31.7% over the full 20-year period. The system’s weakest environment is a simultaneous gold bear market and sideways S&P 500, which occurred in 2014-2015 (the system returned -7.9% and -7.5% those years). However, one strong trending year typically recovers 2-3 bad years. Over any 5-year window in the backtest, the system has always ended ahead.
Why three tiers instead of just all-in or all-out?
Graduated position sizing is the system’s edge against whipsaws. When SPY first crosses above its 200-SMA, it might be a fake-out. The CAUTIOUS tier (40% SSO + 60% GLD) limits damage if the rally fails. Only after 20 consecutive days of confirmation does the system go to FULL UPRO. This approach cut whipsaw costs by more than half compared to a binary system.
Why gold instead of Treasury bonds?
Gold is uncorrelated to equities during crashes — it often rises when stocks fall. During 2008, gold gained while the S&P lost 36%. During March 2020, gold held steady then rallied 25%. Treasury bills earn yield but don’t appreciate during panics. Gold is the active hedge; T-bills are the fallback when gold itself is in a bear market.
How does this compare to holding the S&P 500?
Over 20 years (2006-2026), the S&P 500 returned 10.7% CAGR and turned $100K into $738K. Sentinel TAA returned 20.5% CAGR and turned $100K into $3.99M — a 5.4x difference. The system achieved this with a lower max drawdown relative to its returns (MAR ratio of 0.65 vs ~0.35 for the S&P 500).
What if I miss a signal?
Regime changes develop over days, not minutes. Executing at the next market open captures the vast majority of the move. The system uses end-of-day data, so you always have the evening to prepare.