A quantitative regime detection system that rotates between 2x leveraged S&P 500 and Treasury bonds. Two ETFs. 3-5 trades per year. Backtested across 20 years. The founder's own capital runs on these signals.
SSO -- the 2x leveraged S&P 500 ETF -- returned 350% from 2017 to 2025. But it also dropped 49% during COVID and 45% during the 2022 bear market. Most investors can't hold through drawdowns like that. They sell at the bottom and miss the recovery.
Sentinel TAA solves this by detecting regime changes before they become crashes. The system holds SSO during confirmed bull markets and rotates to Treasury bonds before the damage hits. You keep the 2x upside. You skip the catastrophic downside.
The system was backtested multiple times across each period to measure consistency. Results varied by less than 2% across runs. The same crashes were caught every time. The same bull markets were held every time. The logic is mechanical, reproducible, and auditable.
| Year | Sentinel TAA | SPY Buy & Hold | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $114,200 | $111,290 | +2.9% |
| 2018 | $110,024 | $106,205 | +3.8% |
| 2019 | $145,746 | $139,366 | +6.4% |
| 2020 | $149,708 | $164,914 | -15.2% |
| 2021 | $238,616 | $212,292 | +26.3% |
| 2022 | $208,615 | $173,707 | +34.9% |
| 2023 | $250,794 | $219,177 | +31.6% |
| 2024 | $357,974 | $273,722 | +84.3% |
| Final | $372,233 | $311,771 | +$60,462 |
The one year the system trailed SPY (2020) was the direct cost of crash protection. The system exited SSO on March 2 -- three days before the fastest 30% crash in history -- and re-entered through the AI-accelerated recovery path. By 2021, the system was $26K ahead and never looked back.
| Year | Sentinel | SPY B&H | Alpha | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | $114,909 | $111,921 | +3.0% | Entered SSO, 2x compounding |
| 2007 | $100,246 | $117,681 | -17.4% | Dead cat bounce cost $12K |
| 2008 | $100,086 | $74,380 | +25.7% | In SHV entire crisis |
| 2009 | $109,686 | $93,981 | +15.7% | AI re-entry caught recovery |
| 2010 | $123,356 | $108,131 | +15.2% | SSO compounding in recovery |
| 2011 | $130,997 | $110,180 | +20.8% | Held through EU crisis |
| 2012 | $154,772 | $127,798 | +27.0% | Steady 2x gains |
| 2013 | $243,450 | $169,086 | +74.4% | 16-month SSO hold: +$96K |
| 2014 | $232,479 | $191,852 | +40.6% | Mild pullback, recovered |
| 2015 | ~$200,000 | $194,220 | +3% | China crash cost $48K |
| 2016 | ~$244,000 | $217,522 | +12% | Recovery at 2x |
| Final | $284,399 | $237,477 | +$46,922 | Avg of 3 runs |
10.0% CAGR vs SPY 8.2%. System was in Treasury bonds during the entire 2008 financial crisis (18 months). Positive alpha in 10 of 12 years.
The system uses a dual-velocity exit mechanism. Slow grinding bears (like 2022) are detected through sustained score deterioration over 15 days. Fast violent crashes (like COVID) trigger a rapid exit within 3 days. Both circuits run simultaneously -- whichever fires first, wins.
The system also monitors the yield curve (predicted every recession since 1950), weekly jobless claims, and Federal Reserve policy direction. Fed rate filters prevent false re-entries during bear market rallies -- the #1 killer of leveraged timing strategies.
Every trading day at market close: The composite regime score, all 7 signal readings, AI sentiment analysis of 60+ headlines, current position status, and exit/entry threshold monitoring. Takes 10 seconds to read.
3-5 times per year when a rotation triggers: Immediate trade alert with push notification. Exact action to take -- buy SSO or sell SSO and buy SHV. Full reasoning explaining what triggered the rotation.
During recovery periods: Weekly AI confidence reports showing exactly where the system is in its recovery process -- which signals are improving, how close re-entry thresholds are, estimated timeline.
Founder's portfolio updated daily: See the founder's actual returns compared to SPY buy-and-hold. Real money, real performance, updated every single day.
| Entry | Exit | Asset | P&L | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2017 | Nov 2018 | SSO | +$9,629 | Fast exit (Q4 crash) |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2019 | SHV | +$735 | Treasury yield |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | SSO | +$22,319 | Fast exit (COVID) |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | SHV | +$19 | AI recovery detected |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | SSO | +$12,677 | Slow exit (chop) |
| Jul 2020 | Dec 2020 | SHV | +$47 | AI recovery detected |
| Dec 2020 | Feb 2022 | SSO | +$55,864 | Fast exit (2022 bear) |
| Feb 2022 | Jun 2023 | SHV | +$13,215 | Treasury yield @ 5.1% |
| Jun 2023 | Mar 2025 | SSO | +$114,761 | Slow exit (tariffs) |
| Mar 2025 | Jul 2025 | SHV | +$4,212 | AI recovery detected |
| Jul 2025 | Mar 2026 | SSO | +$50,121 | Fast exit (Iran) |
11 of 12 trades were profitable. Only losing trade: a brief SHV period with negligible yield. Total SSO trades: 6 winners, 0 losers.
Financial advisors charge 1% of assets under management -- $3,000/year on a $300K portfolio -- to hold SPY for you. Sentinel TAA costs $588/year and has historically generated $30,000 in additional alpha on the same portfolio. You keep your money in your own brokerage account. No lockups. No minimums. Full transparency.
Any brokerage that supports SSO and SHV. Interactive Brokers, TD Ameritrade, Questrade (Canada), Wealthsimple Trade, or any major platform. Your money stays in YOUR account. Sentinel TAA only provides signals -- we never have access to your funds.
When a trade signal fires (3-5 times per year), you get a Telegram notification saying "Sell SSO, Buy SHV" or vice versa. You log into your brokerage, place a market order, and you're done. Takes 2 minutes. The signal tells you exactly what to do.
Yes. SSO and SHV both trade on the NYSE and are eligible for TFSAs and RRSPs through any Canadian brokerage. All gains are tax-sheltered. This is the ideal account type for leveraged compounding since you pay zero tax on the returns.
SSO and SHV are highly liquid ETFs with tight bid-ask spreads (typically 1-2 cents). With 3-5 trades per year, total slippage is negligible -- maybe $50-100 annually on a $100K portfolio. The backtests account for a 2% cash reserve to cover friction.
The maximum backtested drawdown was 35.7% during the 2015 China devaluation crash. The system caught it via fast exit but SSO had already dropped significantly at 2x leverage. More recent drawdowns have been lower: 23.1% in the 2017-2026 period and 10.2% in the 1-year live period.
Regime changes happen over days, not minutes. If you miss the signal by a day, you'll still capture 95%+ of the move. The system is designed for end-of-day execution, not intraday timing. Execute at market open the next morning and the difference is negligible.
SPY buy-and-hold returned 13.9% CAGR over 2017-2026 but with a 34% drawdown during COVID. Sentinel TAA returned 16.4% CAGR with crash avoidance. The extra 2.5% annually compounds to $60,000 more on $100K over 8 years. And you sleep through every crash instead of watching your portfolio drop 30%.
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